US-China Forum 2018

China’s Role in the Global Economy

November 1-2, 2018, at the University of Chicago

About
Given the recent headline-generating and market-making tension between the United States and China, the University of Chicago’s fourth annual US-China Forum was held at a propitious time. Gathering current and former policymakers from around the world, as well as leading UChicago scholars, the Nov. 1-2, 2018, event featured panels on topics ranging from the environment and diplomacy, to trade and China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, among other timely issues.

“There is nothing more important than Sino-US relations,” said Tom Pritzker, executive chairman of Hyatt Hotels Corporation and University of Chicago Trustee, who presented on a panel with Hank Paulson, former US Treasury Secretary. Pritzker’s sentiment was echoed by other participants, including Joshua Ramo, Co-CEO of Kissinger Associates, who warned that failure of the two countries to engage productively would harm future generations. “Continued conflict between the US and China stops us from finding areas of common interest, and presents a deeper cost than we may want to pay.”

Tom Pritzker, Hank Paulson, and Michael Greenstone discuss the role of businesses in developing US-China relations.

And the cost of that conflict could extend beyond those two countries, according to UChicago President Robert J. Zimmer. China’s economy is undergoing a transformation that has ripple effects for economies around the world, Zimmer said in his opening remarks. “At the same time, there has been significant escalation in economic tensions between the US and China that also impact global markets,” he said. Nearly two dozen foreign policy experts and academics parsed the significance of those economic tensions for the US, China, and the world.

Read reflections and highlights from the US-China Forum.

Highlights

Watch, read, or listen to the discussions that took place at the 2018 US-China Forum.


November 1 Opening Remarks

Welcoming remarks to begin the 2018 US-China Forum.
Speakers: Bala Srinivasan, Robert J. Zimmer, Michelle Caruso-Cabrera

Video · Transcript


The Role of the Business Community in Developing US-China Relations

The presenters describe their personal experience with opening businesses in China, and reflect on the role that business relationships can play in shaping trade policy.
Speakers: Hank Paulson, Tom Pritzker; Facilitator: Michael Greenstone.

Video · Audio · Transcript


The Trillion Dollar Question: What are the Goals of China’s Belt and Road Initiative?

Presenters offer both skeptical and hopeful reviews of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, including an insightful exchange on the role of financing when determining costs and benefits of BRI projects.
Speakers: Austan Goolsbee, Kenneth Pomeranz, Dali Yang; Facilitator: Michelle Caruso-Cabrera

Video · Audio · Transcript


Diplomacy in an Era of Trade Tension

This spirited discussion highlights a number of issues where US and Chinese diplomats don’t necessarily see eye-to-eye, but also reveals opportunities for possible negotiation.
Speakers: Max Sieben Baucus, Joshua Ramo, Zhou Wenzhong; Facilitator: Michelle Caruso-Cabrera

Video · Audio · Transcript


China’s Economic Outlook: Issues and Policies

Amid questions of whether China can maintain its high growth rates into the future, panelists debated the merits of state vs. free-market economies and to what degree China has embraced market reforms.
Speakers: Yiping Huang, Anil Kashyap, Brad W. Setser; Facilitator: Robert E. Rubin

Video · Audio · Transcript


November 2 Opening Remarks

Opening remarks and a brief recap of day one of the forum.
Speakers: Daniel Diermeier, Liu Jun

Video · Transcript


China’s Role in Global Finance and Trade Growth

China’s ambitious development plans around the world have brought heightened attention to its financial systems, both state-owned and a growing shadow banking system. Presenters discussed the challenges and opportunities for both China and recipient countries.
Speakers: Lars Peter Hansen, Raghuram G. Rajan, Wang Yanzhi; Facilitator: Michelle Caruso-Cabrera

Video · Audio · Transcript


Chinese Leadership in Global Clean Energy Investment, Green Finance, and Sustainable Infrastructure Development

China has experienced enormous health benefits from introducing pollution-control measures in some of its large cities, but there is still more work to be done, both in China and in the many countries where it has current and future development plans.
Speakers: Michael Greenstone, Deborah Lehr, Pin Ni, Richard L. Sandor; Facilitator: Michelle Caruso-Cabrera

Video · Audio · Transcript


The Impacts of Chinese Investments on Recipient Countries

While China is still in the early stages of its wide-ranging Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the impacts of the varied development projects are already being felt around the world, with sometimes mixed results.
Speakers: Caroline Freund, W. Gyude Moore, Arif Rafiq, Andrew Small; Facilitator: Chang-Tai Hsieh

Video · Audio · Transcript


US-China Forum Photos

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Key Insights on China and the Global Economy

Academic and policy experts offer their insights

At the US-China Forum, participants sat down with BFI to discuss their opinions and analysis on China’s economic growth and its impacts on the global economy.


Reflections from the 2018 US-China Forum

Speaker: Michelle Caruso-Cabrera

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The Benefits and Challenges of the Belt and Road Initiative

Speaker: Caroline Freund

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The Impact of the US-China Tariff War

Speaker: Austan Goolsbee

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Improving US-China Relations Through Research Partnerships

Speaker: Chang-Tai Hsieh

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The History of China’s Debt Risk and Implications for the Global Economy

Speaker: Anil Kashyap

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Opportunities and Challenges of Chinese Investments for African Nations

Speaker: W. Gyude Moore

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Conducting Business in China: A Conversation with Tom Pritzker

Speakers: Tom Pritzker, Michael Greenstone

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China’s Impact on Multilateral Institutions & Investment Strategies: A Conversation with Raghu Rajan

Speakers: Raghu Rajan, Erik Hurst

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The Current State of US-China Relations

Speaker: Robert E. Rubin

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Agenda

Thursday, November 1, 2018
12:00 pm - 12:03 pm
Welcome
Bala Srinivasan, Vice President for Global Initiatives and Strategy & Deputy Provost, University of Chicago
12:03 pm - 12:13 pm
Opening Remarks
Robert J. Zimmer, President, University of Chicago
12:13 pm - 12:20 pm
Questions About China's Role in the Global Economy
Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, Contributor, CNBC
12:20 pm - 1:10 pm
Discussion: The Role of the Business Community in Developing US-China Relations
Hank Paulson, Chairman, The Paulson Institute; Former Secretary of the U.S. Treasury
Tom Pritzker, Executive Chairman, Hyatt Hotels Corporation
Facilitator: Michael Greenstone, Milton Friedman Professor in Economics, the College, and the Harris School; Director of the Becker Friedman Institute, University of Chicago
1:10 pm - 2:20 pm
Panel: The Trillion Dollar Question: What are the Goals of China’s Belt and Road Initiative?
Austan Goolsbee, Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago
Kenneth Pomeranz, Professor of Modern Chinese History and in the College, University of Chicago
Dali Yang, William Claude Reavis Professor in the Department of Political Science, University of Chicago
Facilitator: Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, Contributor, CNBC
2:35 pm - 3:45 pm
Discussion: Diplomacy in an Era of Trade Tension
Max Sieben Baucus, Former Ambassador of the United States of America to China
Joshua Ramo, Co-CEO, Kissinger Associates
Zhou Wenzhong, Former Secretary-General of Boao Forum for Asia; Ambassador Extraordinary to the United States
Facilitator: Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, Contributor, CNBC
3:45 pm - 5:00 pm
China's Economic Outlook: Issues and Policies
Yiping Huang, Professor, National School of Development; China Center for Economic Research, Peking University
Anil Kashyap, Edward Eagle Brown Professor of Economics and Finance, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago
Brad W. Setser, Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations
Facilitator: Robert E. Rubin, Co-Chair Emeritus, Council on Foreign Relations; Former Secretary of the U.S. Treasury
Friday, November 2, 2018
8:30 am - 9:00 am
Registration Opens; Continental Breakfast Provided
9:00 am - 9:10 am
What Have We Learned? Brief Recap Of Day One
Daniel Diermeier, Provost, University of Chicago
9:10 am - 9:15 am
Welcome
Liu Jun, Acting Consul General, Chinese Consulate General in Chicago
9:15 am - 10:30 am
Panel: China's Role in Global Finance and Trade Growth
Lars Peter Hansen, David Rockefeller Distinguished Service Professor in Economics, University Of Chicago
Raghuram G. Rajan, Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago
Wang Yanzhi, Executive Director of the Board of Directors and President, Silk Road Fund
Facilitator: Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, Contributor, CNBC
10:30 am - 10:45 am
Break
10:45 am - 12:00 pm
Panel: Chinese Leadership in Global Clean Energy Investment, Green Finance, and Sustainable Infrastructure Development
Michael Greenstone, Milton Friedman Professor in Economics, the College, and the Harris School; Director of the Becker Friedman Institute, University of Chicago
Deborah Lehr, Vice Chairman, The Paulson Institute
Pin Ni, President, Wanxiang America Corporation
Richard L. Sandor, Chairman and CEO, American Financial Exchange; Aaron Director Lecturer in Law and Economics, The Law School, University of Chicago
Facilitator: Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, CNBC Contributor
12:00 pm - 1:15 pm
Panel: The Impacts of Chinese Investments on Recipient Countries
Caroline Freund, Director, Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment Climate, The World Bank
W. Gyude Moore, Visiting Fellow, Center for Global Development; Former Minister for Public Works, Liberia
Arif Rafiq, Fellow, Middle East Institute; President, Vizier Consulting, LLC
Andrew Small, Senior Transatlantic Fellow, Asia Program, German Marshall Fund
Facilitator: Chang-Tai Hsieh, The Phyllis and Irwin Winkelried Professor of Economics, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago
1:15 pm
Wrap Up and Adjournment
Erik Hurst, V. Duane Rath Professor of Economics, Booth School of Business; Deputy Director of the Becker Friedman Institute

Acknowledgements

Contact

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